𝐌𝐕𝐏 𝐑𝐚𝐜𝐞

Abhay Pancharathi

This year is a weird year for the NFL MVP debate. The usual big hitters such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow are all effectively out of the race for 1 reason or another. Mahomes' Chiefs aren't as dominant as they usually are, Allen has a couple of head-scratching games this year, and Jackson / Burrow have missed too much time to injuries (although in limited appearances, Jackson seems to have no drop-off in play and would certainly be here if not for the injuries). This year's debate is a three-headed monster of a running back on a team that was supposed to be tanking. a 37-year-old quarterback who was rumored to have been contemplating retirement earlier this offseason, and a sophomore quarterback who had turnover problems as a rookie with a subpar surrounding cast. Yet all of these players have been absolutely invaluable for their teams this year, and all have propelled their teams to surprise contending status. Let's break down each player's case and see who should truly win this award.

Johnathan Taylor

The case for Johnathan Taylor is simple. He leads the league in rushing yards and touchdowns. He is on pace for 2380 scrimmage yards and 29 total touchdowns.

Here's a list of players who have eclipsed either that scrimmage yard mark or that touchdown mark:

Christian McCaffrey 2019

Ladainian Tomlinson 2006

Marshall Faulk 1999

[End of list]

That's it! Three players have ever reached either of those thresholds. No one has toppled both. There is an argument to be made that this is the single greatest running back season ever. A look behind the curtain at some of the advanced numbers makes this season even crazier. When looking at running backs with above 100 carries this year, the gap between JT's 0.2 EPA/rush mark and 2nd place is the same as 2nd place and 22nd place! He isn't just the best running back in the league; he's lapping the competition. Here's a slew of stats where JT is number 1: EPA/rush, EPA, rush yards, rush touchdowns, yards per carry, yards after contact, and first down percentage. He's also third in success%, which measures how successful each rush is on a down-to-down basis.

We have established he is obviously the best running back this year, and perhaps one of the best ever, but the case against him is simple. He is a running back. This has been thoroughly exhausted, but this is a QB award. The last non-QB to win this award was Adrian Peterson back in 2012. For context, that was the year the first Avengers movie came out! More than that, quarterbacks are simply the most important position on an NFL field. A 2015 study, which attempted to assign a baseball-style WAR stat to Football, calculated that whenever a team loses its QB for a season loses an average of 5 wins per season. That's compared to a negligible value of 0.14 when a running back is lost for a season. On top of that, despite his prolific rushing this year, teams have not loaded the box against JT. He ranks 16th in average defenders in the box this year, a number you'd expect to be much higher before considering that the Colts' passing offense success means that teams cannot sell out for the run. He also runs behind one of the greatest interior linemen ever in Quenton Nelson. Daniel Jones has the exact same EPA/play as JT. The simple fact is that in 2025, throwing the ball is more important than running the ball, and those who throw the ball will be rewarded more than those who run the ball. Although he is having an undoubtedly historic year, I would struggle to have him number 1 on the MVP ballot simply due to the position he plays.

Matthew Stafford Matt Stafford is a funny quarterback. After the swirling rumors that the offseason brought, Stafford compiled the best year of his potential Hall of Fame career. In 2025, when a quarterback is expected to be able to rush in addition to being able to throw, Stafford is dominating while being the league's worst-qualified rusher. Leading the league in passing touchdowns, Stafford, at 37, is somehow peaking. He's 3rd in Pass EPA, 10th in EPA/play, 9th in Success percentage, 1st in passing touchdowns, and 6th in passing yards. He's been especially hot as of late, compiling a stretch of 20 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. That is really the most impressive part of Stafford's year. After being labeled a "gunslinger" who compiles gaudy passing numbers at the expense of turnovers, he's having his most efficient year in that sense, throwing just 2 interceptions all year. He also has multiple signature wins this year over the Seahawks (although he wasn't particularly impressive), 49ers, and Colts. The Rams are second in the NFC currently, largely because of Stafford's play. However, they do have a very good rushing attack, as Kyren Williams is currently leading the NFL in success percentage despite facing league-average numbers of defenders in the box. He also has two top-15ish wide receivers in Davante Adams and Puka Nacua, the latter of whom argues for the best wide receiver in the league. The O-line is also fantastic, ranking as 5th in the NFL in average PFF grade (a flawed statistic, but alas, O-linemen get no stat recognition). What Stafford is doing is incredible, but he has been merely the second-best quarterback this year... second to only...

Drake Maye

What more is there to say about Drake Maye that hasn't been said? With only 24 starts under his belt, he currently leads the league in completion percentage, passing yards, and total EPA. Despite leading the league in completion percentage this year, he still rocks the 3rd-highest aDOT. He's 6th in success percentage, 4th in passing touchdowns, and ranks highly in a whole slew of other statistics. He leads the league in completion percentage over expected by a wide margin. Put simply, almost all of the statistics that Stafford ranked highly in, Maye ranks higher. He's not just impressive for a second-year quarterback; he's having one of the most unexpected seasons ever. He's doing this with the 25th-ranked O-line (compared to Stafford's 5th) and the preseason 31st-ranked wide receiving corps. He's getting part-time help from Stefon Diggs as he works back from his ACL surgery, and has turned Kayshon Boutte into a legit WR2. Boutte was at one point at risk of not even making the roster! Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper are a solid, if unspectacular, duo at tight end. While Treveyon Henderson has been solid when he plays, Rhamondre Stevenson has been the very worst running back in the league by EPA/rush (min 50 carries). With a middling run game, a straight-up bad O-line, and unspectacular receiving options, Drake Maye has the New England Patriots 9-2 and cruising. Maye makes a handful of throws every week that elicit comparisons to Quarterbacks who it would be irresponsible to compare anyone to. No player is currently doing more with less than Maye, and if the Patriots' success continues (especially with two huge tests in the Ravens and Bills), it will be hard to deny Maye. Although much has been made of the Patriots playing lackluster teams, they actually rank number 1 in the difficulty of defense played. This means that although the teams they're playing might be mediocre, no Quarterback has had to face more competition.

All this is to say, I think the MVP is relatively clear right now; Drake Maye has been the best player at a position that is the most important in today's NFL. He has the narratives, the stats, and the record to justify the award. This is, of course, a current thing; if Stafford (or even Josh Allen, for that matter) goes supernova these next couple of weeks, this could all change. From what we've seen, however, this level of play for Maye looks pretty sustainable, perhaps even more so if/when Henderson gets more integrated into the offense or if Kyle Williams continues to break out. Both of those players have had opportunities and are beginning to find their strides. If Maye gets an improving run game and a real deep threat, the Patriots' contending window might be sooner than we all anticipated.